{"createdAt":"2026-11-07T05:11:44.978402+00:00","baselineId":"blend_2020_2024_president_governor","unitLabel":"comparison weights","formula":"For precinct i and election e: s_ie=D_ie/(D_ie+R_ie); S_i=sum_e(s_ie)/4; W_i=sum_e(D_ie+R_ie)/4. Store [W_i*S_i,W_i*(1-S_i),0]. District Democratic share=sum_i(W_i*S_i)/sum_i(W_i).","components":[{"id":"2020-11-03_US PRESIDENT","weight":0.25,"voteCoverage":0.9982279280707048,"boundaryVintage":"20201018","mode":"VAP-weighted estimate on August 2026 precincts"},{"id":"2020-11-03_NC GOVERNOR","weight":0.25,"voteCoverage":0.9982301733732554,"boundaryVintage":"20201018","mode":"VAP-weighted estimate on August 2026 precincts"},{"id":"2024-11-05_US PRESIDENT","weight":0.25,"voteCoverage":0.9994029038908628,"boundaryVintage":"20240723","mode":"VAP-weighted estimate on August 2026 precincts"},{"id":"2024-11-05_NC GOVERNOR","weight":0.25,"voteCoverage":0.9994055223114237,"boundaryVintage":"20240723","mode":"VAP-weighted estimate on August 2026 precincts"}],"currentPrecinctCount":2625,"completePrecinctCount":2625,"missingPrecincts":[],"geographySource":{"url":"https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/ShapeFiles/Precinct/SBE_PRECINCTS_20201018.zip","sha256":"a31a68aab8761ce579ad853690eeef2845dccf8655d9638237ef3845e2405f5b","vintage":"20201018","precinctCount":2658,"selection":"Latest dated statewide precinct shapefile in the official archive before November 3, 2020.","sourceFeatureCount":2659},"inputs":[{"path":"work/ncdistricts-v21/dist/data/scenarios.json","sha256":"16a024b4f25d3a50c089f9b356b75aa4d30b18a583adddb1366566617713feef"},{"path":"work/ncdistricts-v21/dist/data/precincts.geojson","sha256":"e59b92b47e25a1e8e1b9a9816e7b39d4a571bc69cee1efba9a3eaaf34c77fddb"},{"path":"work/geography/block_assignments.pkl","sha256":"eb63c61233625a6ec9abc14f82c71fd672826ebd5f003dcfa72decb5f6eb18da"},{"path":"work/demographics/pl2020_blocks_core.csv","sha256":"3bcf6f3c43f745c8599ed6a13b38c7b269bc72aa2a1d5aae9cacecf20389c4f5"},{"path":"work/elections/dataset/statewide-contests.json","sha256":"b910413f088af2d2673e400c311dd8ccb0f5e1fe5ae39afc9687591ca0c85162"},{"path":"work/blended-elections/source-2020-contests.json","sha256":"84ec411c8de0b46735281022f624c912ef3ca386e44441e5eb9bdcae26052d84"}],"sourceManifest":"source-2020-manifest.json","allocationAudit":"geography-2020-assignment-audit.json","coverageAudit":"coverage-2020.json","source2024Provenance":"Existing archived NCSBE 2024 sorted results and existing July 2024-to-August 2026 crosswalk are reused unchanged.","limitations":["NCSBE precinct-sort counts include statistical noise and are not certified election totals.","Historical results are modeled onto August 2026 precincts using 2020 Census-block VAP. Actual within-precinct voting distributions are unknown.","No administrative or unmatched source vote is silently assigned to a residence precinct. Source vote coverage is shown for each component.","Matching a historical code is used only with a corresponding historical boundary; boundaries are not assumed stable through time.","Equal election weights apply to each precinct share; district aggregation uses each precinct\u2019s mean two-party turnout. This is intentionally different from pooling all votes or averaging district-level shares.","This is a comparison baseline, not a forecast. Third parties are excluded from the two-party index.","A precinct with any missing member has an explicit missing mask and no computed blend; remaining members are not silently reweighted."],"blendTotals":{"DComparisonWeight":2824862.856255,"RComparisonWeight":2615754.643743,"totalComparisonWeight":5440617.499998,"sourceMeanTwoPartyTurnout":5447093.5,"coverage":0.9988111090800994,"statewideDemocraticShare":0.5192173234483104},"validation":{"status":"passed","scenarioChecks":[{"scenario":"2020-11-03_US PRESIDENT","sourceVotes":5527428,"mappedVotes":5517633,"voteCoverage":0.9982279280707048,"mappedPartyTotals":{"D":2679733.0,"R":2753860.0,"O":84040.0},"unmatchedSourceRows":406,"missingCurrentPrecincts":0,"partialCurrentPrecincts":0,"joinMethods":{"exact ID":2658,"unique normalized ID":1}},{"scenario":"2020-11-03_NC GOVERNOR","sourceVotes":5505059,"mappedVotes":5495316,"voteCoverage":0.9982301733732554,"mappedPartyTotals":{"D":2829848.0,"R":2582111.0,"O":83357.0},"unmatchedSourceRows":406,"missingCurrentPrecincts":0,"partialCurrentPrecincts":0,"joinMethods":{"exact ID":2658,"unique normalized ID":1}}],"crosswalkSourceWeightsSumToOne":true,"mappedAndUnmatchedConserveSourceVotes":true,"currentPrecinctOrderVerified":true,"blendFormulaCheckedEveryCompletePrecinct":true,"noMissingMemberImputation":true,"geometryFallback":{"method":"Intersect 2020 Census block internal point with October 2020 precincts, choosing smallest containing same-county precinct if overlaps occur; otherwise nearest same-county precinct.","fallbackBlocks":46,"fallbackPopulatedBlocks":15,"fallbackPopulation":300,"fallbackVap":238,"maxPopulatedDistanceMetres":726.14}},"geographyMetadataRepairs":[{"precinctCode":"G2C-2","countyName":"Cumberland","field":"county_id","sourceValue":null,"normalizedValue":26,"evidence":"Unique same county name among other records of this official shapefile, case-insensitive."},{"geometryKey":"26:G2C-2","action":"dissolved duplicate county/precinct key","topologicallyIdentical":true,"sourceFeatureIds":[1479,2677]}],"countyFipsSource":{"url":"https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_county2020.txt","sha256":"9f6e5f6eb6ac2f5e9a36d5fd01dec77991bddc75118f748a069441a4782970d6","method":"Join official Census county names to SBE county names. No arithmetic assumption relating county FIPS to SBE alphabetical IDs."}}